The 2024 deceleration in demand growth was most visible in China. In 2023, the country’s oil use surged by 8.7% after lockdowns were lifted, but in 2024, it rose by 0.8% – well below the average annual growth rate prior to the Covid-19 pandemic. Most of this growth was recorded in 1Q24, owing to the residual impact of lockdowns in 1Q23. The slowdown was driven by a mix of factors, including the very rapid deployment of electric vehicles, growth in natural gas-powered trucks, the huge expansion of high-speed rail, and the ongoing downturn in the property sector. In 2023, oil demand had also been boosted by a major year-on-year oil price decline, with benchmark Brent crude prices falling by 18% compared with 2022 (and product prices falling further). In 2024, average prices fell only marginally year-over-year and the absence of a comparable boost contributed to the more muted demand uplift.

As a result, while  global oil consumption in 2024 recovered to 1.3% above 2019 levels, this was almost entirely due to higher demand for petrochemical feedstocks, which climbed by over 12% over the previous five years. This growth is highly concentrated in China, where feedstock use rose by more than the total net increase in world oil demand. Feedstock demand growth has remained strong – principally due to the absence of efficiency improvements or widespread substitution impacting plastic production or demand.

Non-feedstock uses of oil remain dominated by transport applications in road, aviation and shipping. In 2024, these non-feedstock uses were virtually equal to 2019 levels, despite aggregate global GDP growth of about 14% over this five-year period. This highlights the impact of factors such as electric vehicles and high-speed rail, efficiency improvements and remote working.

Liquid biofuel demand increased by 0.2 EJ in 2024 compared with 2023, reaching over 4% of global transport fuel consumption. Brazil, India, Indonesia and the United States accounted for 90% of this growth. Brazil alone contributed nearly half of the expansion, driven by continued policy support for biofuel blending and rising transport fuel demand. In the United States, which accounted for one-fifth of global demand growth, the increase was supported by federal and state-level policy measures. India and Indonesia together contributed a further 20%, reflecting higher blending mandates and increased fuel consumption.

Oil demand was largely steady in advanced economies in 2024, falling by 0.1%, compared with the 0.7% decline recorded in 2023. Nevertheless, demand remained 5.4% below its 2019 level. This drop was concentrated in oil products for road transport, with tighter vehicle efficiency standards, the higher share of EVs and more prevalent remote working, outweighing modest underlying economic growth.

US oil demand was flat in 2024 after ticking up in 2023. It remained 4.3% lower than in 2019, with non-feedstock uses down by 7% but petrochemical use nearly 18% higher. Teleworking has had a particularly large impact on US gasoline consumption, especially given the importance of driving for US commuters. In contrast, rising feedstock demand for export-focused polymer production has been supported by a sharp rise in domestic natural gas liquid (NGL) supplies.

Transport fuel use in the European Union and Japan has been constrained by similar factors. While demand was flat in 2024, difficult industrial conditions helped push EU oil consumption to 7.0% below 2019. Japan posted an 11.8% fall compared with pre-pandemic levels after 2024 demand dropped by 4.4%.

 In 2023, China saw demand growth rise to a record 1.4 mb/d, as it emerged from a year of lockdowns, with surging mobility and the release of pent-up demand, especially for air travel. This coincided with a vast wave of petrochemical plants ramping up. Consumption for petrochemical feedstocks therefore increased by 900 kb/d, while demand for jet fuel/kerosene rose by 320 kb/d. In 2024, this shifted, with non-feedstock growth stalling.

In other emerging market and developing economies in Asia, fuel demand continues to rise. India (+3.4%) was the largest single global oil demand growth source in 2024, while demand in Southeast Asia (+2.6%) also rose significantly. India’s dynamic economy has underpinned the advances of recent years, with urbanisation and rising car ownership lifting oil demand 11.6% higher in 2024 than 2019. Gasoline use in the world’s most populous nation increased by 41.7% (+310 kb/d) from 2019 to 2024.

Across Africa and Latin America, rises in demand across 2023 and 2024 were much more uneven. A period of relatively high oil prices and a strong US dollar created challenges for importers, with several emerging market and developing economies seeing acute disruptions to fuel use. This is often connected to wider economic difficulties – as in Argentina and Sri Lanka – and the withdrawal or reduction of government subsidy schemes – as was the case in Egypt, Nigeria and Pakistan. As a result, demand in Africa declined in both 2023 and 2024, while the increase in Latin America was overwhelmingly due to growth in Brazil.